Case Study: Betting on the World Cup 2022
Every four years, millions of fans focus on the football World Cup. Even casual spectators are simply drawn by the media hype and end up following the global tournament in some manner.
For most Brazilians, however, this is a true emotional pinnacle of a long journey. The nation comes together and the green-yellow jersey becomes a symbol of pride that transcends demographics, lifestyles, and political views.
A group of market analysts takes a closer look at aggregate sportsbook data from the final months of 2022. They investigate how passion and football expertise affect betting markets during major sporting events. They discover that:
- Brazilian bettors possess extensive knowledge of the top teams but prioritize placing bets on the Seleção
- Most plan their bets in advance and are comfortable with placing multiple bets and navigating complex markets
- On game day, pre-game bets are more prevalent, although live bets see a higher share during the most anticipated matches.
More than Just a Game
Football holds a special place in the heart of Brazil, and this is no secret. It’s common to witness businesses shutting down early or entirely during important matches, especially those featuring the national team.
The impact of high-profile games is significant on the economy as well. According to the Brazilian Association of Bars and Restaurants in Rio (Abrasel), turnover surges by at least 30% during the World Cup, which typically lasts for a month. Fans gather at bars and restaurants to watch the games and celebrate with their loved ones, displaying their unwavering passion for football.
This love for the sport is deeply ingrained in Brazilian culture and is passed down through generations. The anticipation for the World Cup, which occurs once every four years, takes this excitement and pride to new heights.
This is precisely what the research team has observed on KTO.com regarding betting activity, the range of sportsbook markets available (types of bets), and the conduct of registered users in relation to crucial World Cup matches.
The Ultimate Sports Event
The World Cup delivers an apex of excitement for Brazilian football fans. Many plan their lives around it and prepare well in advance by buying flags, shirts, and collectible player stickers. Despite the odd timing of the 2022 event, which ran from November 20 to December 18, the country still expected to come to a standstill during game times.
Naturally, it turned out to be a busy time for sports betting enthusiasts as well, a pastime that was formally legalized in 2018. Although the local team lost to Croatia in the quarter-finals, the World Cup generated a lot of betting activity reflecting the game schedule and the popularity of the teams involved.
Media Hype and Bets Follow the Top Ranked Teams
Below is a table displaying the percentage of active users, quantity of bets, and total stakes made on the top 10 teams both prior to and during the World Cup betting sessions.
The volume of bets, number of active users, and total amounts placed on Brazil have exceeded expectations. An estimated 67.23% of all players have acted on their knowledge, passion, or insights concerning the national team’s performances in the World Cup.
Moreover, almost all bets placed during the World Cup (96.58%) were related to the top 10 teams, which also accounted for just under half (48.3%) of all stakes made prior to and during the campaign.
It should be noted that these bets were placed not only during the tournament but also during most of 2022, with the betting activity on KTO being measured from April 1.
Argentina and France were popular choices for bettors in the World Cup due to their strong squads and high-profile players like Lionel Messi and the young emerging athletes of France’s winning campaign in 2018.
Teams like England, Spain, and Portugal also generated betting activity due to high-profile athletes and consistent performances. Belgium’s high FIFA rankings also attracted betting activity.
Morocco and the Netherlands moved up the betting activity charts as they reached the latter stages of the World Cup.
Top Sportsbook Markets at the 2022 World Cup
The chart displayed above shows the ranking of the most commonly used types of bets during the 2022 World Cup, which provides insight into users’ behavior and choices. The total percentage of active players exceeds 100% because fans often bet on multiple markets, teams, and game outcomes.
The most popular betting market was the ultimate outcome of a game, with the 1X2 market being the most frequently used by active players, generating around two thirds of bets and stake amounts. Bets on the overall outcome of a game are popular among less experienced players who participate in real-money gambling during major events such as the World Cup and national team matches.
Additionally, the market for total goals attracts more than a third of active players (36.87%), resulting in just under 10% of bets and stakes. Other similar binary markets like “both teams to score”, “to qualify”, and “no draw” also receive significant attention, involving straightforward yes/no answers. “Total corners” and “first half total goals” are evaluated based on the same over/under values as the “total goals” market. This category of binary markets accounted for a sixth of all bets (15.46%) and turnover (15.10%) during the World Cup.
Markets that require more careful consideration and game analysis, such as Bet Builder, Double Chance, and Exact Score, have higher potential for returns. However, they require a deeper understanding of betting strategies, as well as the multiple factors that affect the teams (and individual athletes’) performances.
In general, the top 10 betting markets cover the majority of choices that punters make, with other markets such as fast markets and player specials being used as side bets.
Punters Have Little Interest for Combination Slips
The complexity of sports betting markets involves understanding the distinction between single bets and those placed as part of any combinations.
Single bets are straightforward and make up the majority of stakes, while multiple bets involve selecting several outcomes from different events and system bets cover a range of outcomes and combinations.
System bets require higher stakes and involve making more informed decisions, which is why they were chosen by only a fraction of users.
Clarifying Popular Betting Markets
For less experienced users, some of the betting markets on KTO may need further explanation.
The Total Goals market, which is the second most popular, involves predicting the number of goals scored over or under a certain threshold.
Quarter-goal bets are also available, and in the event of 1 total goal scored, players receive 50% of their bet refunded. This logic applies to other markets such as total corners, first half total goals, and total yellow cards.
The Empate Devolve aposta, or no-draw bet, is a binary-choice bet where players wager on one team winning, with bets being voided in the event of a draw.
Multiple and system bets include Double Chance, where players can bet on two outcome options in a game, and BetBuilder, which involves predicting the game winner, total goals, and whether a specific player will receive a yellow card.
The fixed version of a multiple bet, called Malandrinha or Lottery Bet, offers two types of compound bets: Score 4 and Jackpot.
Channels and Timing of Actual Bets
After examining the betting preferences of Brazilians during the World Cup, we now turn our attention to how and when they placed their bets. It should come as no surprise that the majority of wagers were made using mobile devices.
A staggering 92.45% of active users placed their bets on a smartphone, with some also using a desktop computer (26.26%) for betting. The proportions of total bets and stakes placed on mobile devices were similarly high at 86.80% and 84.54%, respectively.
The timing of the bets is more significant than the method of betting. When distinguishing between pre-game and live betting, both approaches were equally popular among World Cup bettors. Almost all active users attempted a pre-live bet at least once, with 93.50% of users making such bets.
On the other hand, 65% of fans preferred live betting, which was supplemented by 32% who opted to add or modify their bets in real-time.
While multiple bets like Malandrinha have a devoted following among active users, they account for only a small fraction of the bet slips and amounts placed. This cautious behavior is typical of most bettors, even fans of multiple bets.
Notably, most players took their time to decide on bets (65.46%) and placed larger amounts (62.8%) prior to the game.
An Eager Wait for World Cup Glory
Examining the timing of highly anticipated matches during the World Cup can provide valuable insight. One such match was Brazil’s opening game against Serbia, which took place on November 24 at 16:00 BRT (Brasilia time zone).
Brazil has a strong obsession with football, and the World Cup is no exception. With a long history of talented players like Pelé, Socrates, Garrincha, Ronaldo, Ronaldinho, and Neymar, the nation believes that winning the World Cup is their divine right.
This unwavering conviction was reflected in the early bets placed on Brazil’s opening game, which became available on KTO in the first week of April. Weekly betting interest remained low but consistent for the first 7 months, with only 2.38% of the bets placed on the Brazil vs. Serbia game during this period.
However, the betting activity increased exponentially in the last month, with the graphical representation of the curve being almost identical for the remaining 97.62% of bets placed. The week leading up to the game saw a significant increase in betting activity, with the day of the match having the highest intensity.
On game day, bet counts alone were equal to the activity in the 4 days before it, and the first day of the World Cup opening had double the number of bets compared to the entire 2022. While the hours preceding the game were hectic for most bettors, there were fewer live bets than the platform average (25% live markets). This was likely due to fans being too eager to place their stake regardless of their typical betting style.
Although live bets made up less than 7% of bets on the opening World Cup game, matchday wagers saw a rise to 16.36%, which is much closer to conventional levels. Overall, the betting activity leading up to Brazil’s opening game against Serbia highlights the nation’s deep-rooted passion for football and their unwavering support for their team.
The World Cup Final Game in the Spotlight
The highly anticipated match featured the reigning champions, France, and Argentina led by football superstar Lionel Messi. This match drew significant interest from fans, media, and sportsbook operators.
Betting officially began on December 14, after the finalists were announced, with the match scheduled for December 18 at 12:00 BRT. However, less than 60% of the bets were made before the game due to the circumstances.
Neutral fans were lucky to witness a thrilling game that lasted for nearly three hours, featuring multiple goals, extra time, and penalties. The lead kept switching between Argentina and France, with Mbappe, the French forward, scoring three crucial goals.
This resulted in a significant amount of live bets being placed, with 40.84% of total bets being made during regular time (29.18%), extra time (10.24%), and penalty shootout (1.43%). These percentages corresponded closely to the time distribution of the game’s different parts, indicating that there was a consistently high level of betting activity throughout the entire match.
Summary of Conclusions
The study finds a direct correlation between the legalization of sports betting in Brazil and the impact this has had on user behavior during the 2022 World Cup.
The passion and pride of the national team influenced the betting behavior of users, with emotions boosting market shares for the Seleção. However, there was still a natural aversion to risk, with most punters analyzing their bets carefully and exploring multiple markets.
Live bets were popular but placed less frequently and with smaller amounts.
Overall, Brazilian sportsbook enthusiasts have become knowledgeable in complex betting markets and have invested their knowledge of the game in decision making.
